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LEARNING TO TRADE STOCKS
If you want to trade stocks ..
and at this point, I no longer recommend it, especially at this
time .. but if you want to learn, then here are my top suggestions
that should give you the 'short cut' I wish I had had when I
first started!
I now know that to learn to trade stocks actively & profitably,
you must be well funded. I would suggest $50,000.00
minimum to start. (Compare Forex
where you can start with as little as $2000.00, although 5-10k,
is preferred). Any money you use to open a trading account
MUST BE money you can AFFORD TO LOSE. Beginners can and will
lose money before learning how to be profitable consistently.
MOST people who try to learn to trade are not successful. I
am hoping to provide you with useful information that will
help you overcome the odds. :-))
To trade stocks, I recommend putting $30k into your broker
account, $15k into an interest bearing account (which you will
need
to replace
the losses you WILL have while learning) and use $5k to get
you through the first year or two of subscriptions, education
expenses,
buying courses, etc. If you have less than 50k, then divide
your account in half: i.e. 15k/2 = $7500.00.
Use one-half to trade and put the other half into
an interest bearing account. Put at least $2k aside for training,
education, subscriptions.
(But .. if you have less than $50k in reserve of RISK CAPITAL
to start with, I really recommend learning to trade Forex, not
stocks)
Below I say "year 1, 2" then underneath "unit
1,2" because it may take you a less time than it did me,
because you have this information! Maybe for you a unit will
be 6 or even 3 months.
Year 1
(or Unit 1)
This year you will be confused & understand very little
of what you are reading or learning. This is normal. :-) |
- Sign up for the services on my Top Recommendations page.
Brand new traders, you will want to choose either Mr.
Swing's Charting Software or Worden's
TCNet Gold membership.
Start learning everything you can
about charting, espcially moving averages, stochastics,
bollinger bands and candlesticks.
- Check the RESOURCES page,
Education, and purchase as much of the educational materials
as you can afford.
- Download QUOTETRACKER and
start learning how to use it. If you choose TradeStation
as your broker, you will
not need it ... but with any other broker, it can be
a valuable extra resource (and free)
- Open an account with an online brokerage: see my information
on brokers under Resources.
Choose one with very low commissions or you
will be scared away from trading actively too soon. (and
/ or will deplete your account)
**one
thing I "wish" I had been told to do:
- After 3-4 weeks of learning the very
basics, subscribe to Phil's
Gang and plan to stay for at least 6 months to learn
all about his "W", very important for a new
trader. He is a a bit of a 'wild man' and you'll need
to get used
to his style of talking, but he will teach
you invaluable information about how the
markets really work that
I have not found anywhere else. I have subscribed
to services costing 5 times as much that do not offer
1/10
what Phil
does.
- Start trading slowly, allow yourself
no more than 1-2 trades a day. AND no more than 5-10
shares at a time! My biggest
mistake was "jumping in" with full sized trades
You should only swing trade for the first few months,
no daytrading even if your account is large enough. Short
term
(1-7 day)
swing trading with small share sizes!! Your
goal for now is NOT to start making money, (man!
I wish someone had made that clear to me when I started!!)
it is
to learn how to enter & especially
exit a trade without LOSING money.
You should be watching the 1 day to 1 week charts
when you trade. Do not watch the intraday charts, or if you
do, do
not use time frames of less than 15 minutes. Phil will
teach you how to use the 15 minute charts effectively.
- After 6 months, or 1/2 your time 'unit', try a subscription
a couple of "stock picking services' like China
Profit Strategy or Mystwerld. You
can now take the other half of your trading account out
of the CD & use it to trade these picks using
the formula I
gave to determine share size.
- At this point I also suggest investing in the Bonsai
Waverider course. Yes, I know, funky name .. but this
is the best I have found and I found it way too late. By
the
time I purchased & read this excellent course, I had already
made the decision to give up trading equities. Had I read
it a few years earlier, it would have made a huge difference
in my trading results. That is why I am recommending it
to you as soon as you are ready for it, which should be
after a few months general orientation. This is not the
cheapest course available, but should be the only one you
need, if you learn & study what it teaches, you should
see excellent results. Click for information.
- Keep good records of all trades!!! Write down each trade
and WHY you got in and WHY you got out. Be brutal & honest
with yourself if you made stupid mistakes (which you
will, trust
me)!!
- Stay out of live trading
chatrooms,
Do
not pay attention to financial channels on TV
until you are trading successfully, and if
you
listen to
radio financial shows, do not try to 'chase' the picks
that are mentioned.
Do not trust any "stock guru" your first 2
years or until you know enough to make your own decisions
based
on your technical analysis of the charts.
Check out this WARNING about what can happen on public
message boards & chatrooms.
- If you have questions email
me: love2trade@traderstar.com and
I will be happy to help if I can.
|
Year 2:
(or Unit 2)
Like most Sophmores this year you will 'think' you know a
lot.
You will find out that you don't. |
You should be gaining confidence in chart reading, and
if you can now look at a chart & "see" what
is happening without thinking about it, then you are ready
to start increasing share
size to 50-100 shares per trade. (but no more than 5% of
your account size on any one trade).
You may even start
making money .. but you will probably lose
it
again during times when the market pulls back. If you are
losing too much, return to trading 10-20 shares until you
get better.
You might want to try shorting stocks now, so you can take
advantage of down markets. Phil's
Gang will be teaching you how.
If you are still using free charting services, now is
a good time to 'upgrade' to something more useful like Mr.
Swing's Swing Tracker, especially if you like
short term swing trading.
Also, if you don't have it yet, now is the time to
purchase and thorougly read the Bonsai
WaveRider: Surfing
the Waves trading course (click link for info).
- You should be really really really good at interpreting
candlestick patterns now. If not, keep hitting the books
until you are! Click for a good course in candlesticks.
- Focus on learning more about the market itself, why
does it move, what does it react to? Study the index
stocks like the INDU, NASDAQ 100, SP500, SMH, BKX etc.
Phil will show you how to 'read' the market each morning
(and this will start making more sense as time goes on)
and Eric will help you understand the bigger picture
including the global markets..
- Using your personal stock lists,
zoom out a
lot to see how
patterns
develop
on weekly or even monthly
charts. Practice with line charts, candlestick charts,
charts with bollinger bands, and different moving averages.
Pros usually "eyeball" 100-200
charts every night. This is more important than it might
seem
at first.
- Paper
trade some stocks using the weekly charts only, to
get an overview
of how
trends
develop
long
term. (If
I had been taught this early on, I most likely would
not have missed the stupendous moves in TASR and
HANS to name just two!)
- Start familiarizing yourself
with basic fundamental information, like P/E ratios.
Watch how earnings reports,
upcoming
split or dividend announcements affect the underlying stocks.
If you are really mathematically inclined, you may want
to try some back-testing of stocks.
- Also start making notes on how
the market reacts to the various months of the year.
The "January effect" is
well known, did it happen this year? What happens in
the summer?
"Sell in May & go away-- would that have been
a good idea in 2006? In 2007? What happens in October?
Is there always a Santa Claus rally?
- How do stocks react to the
cycle of news, like FOMC, CPI, PPI, interest rates, when
or when the President or Bernacke speaks?
- Now is a good time to subscribe to China
Profit Strategy or other advisory services mentioned in Resources, if
you haven't already.
- You should have a list of "favorite" stocks
now that you like to watch, either as bellweathers, or
that
you like to
trade. Remember, some people make a good living trading
just ONE or TWO stocks! Your list will probably be 20
to 100 stocks,
you'll be checking it daily on different charts, line,
candle, with different indicators. You are honing your
chart reading
skills & begining to identify your own favorite indicators.
NOTE: if your charts are starting to resemble the blueprints
for the NY subway system including electricty & sewage,
you probably need to simplify them .. you do not need 40
indicators
on a chart. Most successful traders have 3-4 at most!
- Don't forget to keep good notes in your trading
diary.
- Still stay away from live trading chatrooms.
|
Year 3:
(or Unit 3)
Older & wiser .. and still hurting from what seem to be way
too many losses, you resign yourself to learning & learning
& learning, with little expectation of quick reward.
This
will pay off. |
"As
long as you keep RISK under control -- you WILL have
PROFITS!"
This year you are ready to type or write those words on
a piece of paper (backwards) and staple it to your forehead.
Then
keep a mirror on your desk so you can look at yourself
frequently and read it !
This is the year when you feel
like you *are* a trader. You are getting the hang of
this, and confidence is
building.
Making money is no longer a problem .. you can sit down
at the computer any given day, you'll recognize the set-ups
to go long or short, and most of the time, you will make
money.
Unfortunately... you
may
still
pull
off
some major screw ups ... by not
heeding
the above
and
controlling
your risk.
If you have weathered two major market reversals & lost
little to nothing in your account because you got out in
time .. you are making great progress!
- You might want to read some recommended
trader books from Amazon, in addition to your ebook
courses.
- Keep studying the market itself. Professional traders
watch the market each day, not just their individual
stocks. The market tells them what to do with their own
stocks.
You should be comfortable viewing charts on multiple
timeframes,
from
intraday to weekly. Do NOT neglect the weekly charts as
they give you the "bigger" picture. Use the Bottom
Springer approach to find the stocks that are going to make
spectacular
moves of 300, 500%, 1000% or more .. they are always out
there.
- Now you should also start learning about options if
you want to make more money faster. But make sure you
have learned & can practice the rules of money management
first! #1
Options Trading Course is a good & inexpensive
way to begin.
- Learn something about the bond market and how it relates
to stock market movement. Learn about sectors and how
they
rotate.
Observe this as
it happens during the year. You should be checking the
indices every day and you should be able to recognize
by yourself
when the market is looking "toppy" and ready
for a pullback or when it seems "oversold" and
getting ready to rally. Phil's
Gang will teach you all about that.
- If you do want to trade options or futures, make sure
you have already made an extra $10,000 minimum to
trade with that you CAN AFFORD to lose! Only do
this if you have also weathered at
least two major market
reversals
with very little loss in your account. Be prepared
to lose the entire $10k .. but if you study
enough before beginning, you will most likely not lose
the money
and
if successful, you will make money faster in options
than you ever could in stocks alone.
|
Year 4
(or Unit 4)
One magic day, maybe late
last year, or during this year, you will wake up and realize
you are a trader. The journey
has been worth it. You stayed to the end, endured the bad
tiimes .. and now you can rightly enjoy your reward! |
You should now have a trading style that
is uniquely your own. You may be an active swing trader,
or
a day trader.
You may have an options account and use it to hedge against
yourself. :-) Maybe you have moved to Forex & only trade
stocks/options on the side.
- Never stop learning. Read at least 3-4 new
trading books a year and re-read your favorites.
- At this point
if you want to join the active trader chats, go ahead,
but
be careful .. many in there are not what they seem.
Do not follow
their picks, unless you are very confident in your own
skills at recognizing what is good AND you know you
will honor your
stops!.
- Around this time,
people may take notice of your trading success (the same
ones who have been ridiculing you these
past years). Some may even ask you to trade
their accounts for them. Interactive Brokers (and
several others)
have a "family & friends" arrangement
that allows one person to trade multiple accounts.
Don't attempt
this
until you
are sure you are ready, and make sure you have them
sign a legal waiver that will exonerate you in case
of losses.
But once you have the confidence, it can be a lucrative
thing to do. People who manage such accounts often
take anywhere from 25-60% of the profits as their commissions.
Or you might want to manage your kids' accounts or
IRA's. As a 'skilled' trader you should be able to
earn 50-150%
on your own money each year, and 20-30% or better on
managed accounts (depending on account size & to
a lesser extent, on the market itself) Or more, sometimes
a lot more.
Congratulations! Enjoy the 'world's best
job' for freedom and financial security. 
P.S. You are now ready for 'Grad School".
The learning
never stops. |
Trading vs Investing in Real Estate
While I was learning to trade (I started in
Fall 2002), many people with some extra money put it into real
estate. And some
of them lived in Las Vegas, Florida or Phoenix... so
you can imagine what happened.
Of course they thought I was nuts.
I had a little bit of money to play with (and not much chance
of getting more) so why did I not buy a house? .. then sell
it a year later, then do it again, and again...
And if I had, I would have made a lot of money.
On paper.
But I would not have learned how to trade.
Now the housing market is going back down. People
are talking about a 'bubble'. People I know (who have now parleyed
their
original purchase into a house worth 3 or more times as much)
are now proud owners (well, mortgagers) of homes worth 1/2 to
1 million or more. On paper that is. Unfortunately, none of them
can actually sell their homes at the moment. And they still don't
know how to trade.
But ... when a real estate market comes along
like from 2001-2005, shouldn't you take advantage of it,
even if you
know how to trade?? Take
all available cash & get in on the boom, right?
Let's take a look: in Spring of 2002,
I could have taken $20,000 cash and put it into a nice house
in, say,
Las Vegas for $120,000. I spend $20,000
of my
cash for down payment, closing costs & incidentals. And...the
market takes off! So a year later I sell & use
the equity to buy another house, then do it again
9 months
later and so on. Today I have a house worth $600,000 (on paper).
My equity is over half of that. Wow .. from $10k to 300k in
3-4
years ..
good, right? Yes, if I can sell it now that house prices are
tanking again. And .. by the way .. where do I live if I do
sell??
OK, option B: As an experienced trader
(which, alas I was not in 2002!), I start tracking a little
stock out
of Scottsdale, AZ .. it comes up on my radar from criteria
I have put in .. and it gets my attention. It has potential,
both technically & fundamentally. So I take my $20,000
and buy 6,000 shares at $3.50 each.
You may have guessed .. the little stock is
TASR. By Christmas of 2004 after 3 splits (one of them a 3
for 1), it finally looks like it's getting tired and I now
own
72,000 shares. So I cash out at $33 per share. That
equals $2,300,000.00. Hmm. I think I prefer the market :-)
And that was just with buy & hold. Actively trading the stock
could have yielded much more.
Of course I was not experienced
enough back then to catch TASR .. but there will be more.
There are always more... ..and
now I am watching them :-)))))))
Also, as a trader, you can cash out
whenever you want. No waiting for a buyer, no waiting for
money to clear
escrow,
no waiting at
all. Just close the trades, ask brokerage to send check, and
48-72 hours later, there it is in the bank. So do you think
I regret
'throwing
away'
money on rent while learning to trade, and missing the 'red-hot'
real estate market?
No.

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